Day 1 :
Keynote Forum
Vladimir Babeshko
Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia
Keynote: Influence of the seismicity on the climate change
Time : 9.30-10.15
Biography:
Vladimir Babeshko has completed his PhD (Doctor of Mechanics) from Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia. He is a Chief of Scientific-Research Center for Forecasting and Preventing Geoecological and Technologenic Disasters, Kuban State University and Southern Research Center, Russian Academy of Sciences. He has 20 patents, published 7 monographs and more than 450 papers in reputed journals to his credit.
Abstract:
The problem of prediction of the recently established new type of earthquakes called starting earthquakes is discussed. These arise in the Earth's crust at the moment of contact of lithospheric plates. The origin of the starting earthquakes is associated with concentration of contact stresses below them. The problem is considered under the assumption that the lithospheric plates and the below layered substrates are linearly elastic. The layered bases are modeled by three-dimensional bodies, while the lithospheric plates are modeled by Kirchhoff plates. The report addresses the stress concentration under the plates for different mutual positions when they approach each other with their ends. Both cases of distant plates and contacted plates are considered. The report demonstrates that the obtained result cannot be obtained by a finite element method and other numerical methods based on the energy integral. The topological method of the block element elaborated in this paper differs from the earlier approaches by the present authors. In the earlier works the local coordinate systems were introduced which complicates in understanding the results. The present report proposes a unified coordinate system which makes the approach applicable to other problems. This approach also reveals a singular concentration of contact stresses which coincides with the previously obtained singularity however the present result is more transparent. This result allows us to discuss the approach enabling prediction of location, time and intensity of earthquake, as well as the conditions that ensure the realization of prognostication. The influences of the seismicity and earthquakes on the climate change are discussed in the report.
Keynote Forum
Arup Kumar Sarma
Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, India
Keynote: Sustainable approach of rainwater management and application for mitigating climate change impact on tea agriculture in northeast India
Time : 10:15-11:00
Biography:
Arup Kumar Sarma is presently holding the prestigious B P Chaliha Chair Professor position given by Ministry of Water Resources, Government of India. He has also served as a Visiting Professor in the Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok, Thailand. He has developed NPTEL video course on Hydraulic Engineering which is getting wide appreciation from different parts of the globe and has entered the top 5 most visited course. He has more than 100 technical papers published in national and international journals, books and in conference proceedings. Apart from working for management of many Indian Rivers, he has also provided his technical expertise for management of Mekong River. He is a Reviewer of several reputed international journals and has also served as Member and Adviser of various prestigious committees.
Abstract:
Future projection of precipitation and temperature in northeast India under climate change scenario has been carried out using different combinations of GCMs and RCP scenarios. Study has revealed that increase in total annual precipitation varies from 3% to 27% with increase in number of dry days. This indicates high intensity rainfall of short duration in monsoon and longer dry spell. Visible impact of such changed scenario has been experienced in various sectors of economy including agriculture. Tea, one of the major commercial crops of northeast India, is suffering because of this changed scenario. To mitigate adverse impact of climate change, society can take up various steps for reducing carbon emission, increasing carbon sink and adapting themselves to the changing scenario. The increasing temporal variation in water availability can be reduced by increasing surface storage by different means. Rainwater harvesting, if done in large scale and in an innovative way considering sustainability aspect can contribute significantly towards mitigating climate change impact on the society in general and water. Efficient management of rainwater will also help reducing flood and drought. To achieve multiple benefits of rainwater harvesting, a new and flexible method, named as Sustainable Approach of Rainwater Management and Application (SARMA) has been developed and presented in this paper. This proposed method, in addition to conventional benefit of meeting water-need for day to day application, provides benefits of irrigation, flood moderation, improved drainage condition, groundwater recharge, pisciculture, carbon sequestration, reducing power consumption and hence carbon emission and micro-climate moderation. Field application of this method in Dolowjan Tea Estates of India has generated visible evidence that efficient management and application of rainwater using SARMA method not only can provide other conventional benefits but also can bring favorable micro-climatic changes and thus can be considered as a solution to climate change.
Keynote Forum
Shoichiro Ozaki
Ehime University, Japan
Keynote: Promotion of plankton CO2 assimilation by NOx is best way to protect global warming and to get best climate
Time : 11:15-12:00
Biography:
Shoichiro Ozaki has served as the Professor at Ehime University, Department of Chemical Industry and as the Visiting Professor at various reputed universities of the world including University of Konstanz, New York State University and Shangdong University. He had also been a Research Chemist at the Institute of Physical and Chemical Research, Tokyo, Japan. Currently he is the Professor Emeritus at the Ehime University, Japan. He has been the Recipient of Hatsumeishou (Invention Prize) for the invention of Carmofur (antitumor agent), Gakujutsusho (Academic Prize) from the Japan Chemical Society for the synthesis of biologically active compounds (Carmofur, IP3) and Fulbright Award.
Abstract:
The earth is warmed by CO2 and heart produced by burning of fossil fuel. The plant is growing by CO2 assimilation absorbing CO2 producing carbohydrate and O2. Supply of nutrients is important factor for the promotion of CO2 assimilation. When fossil fuel is burned, NOx is produced. This NOx is major source of nutrient N. NOx is promoting CO2 assimilation and promoting the growth of plankton and contributing to produce fish and grain. But NOx is hated as pollution gas. Around half of country hated NOx. NOx 7.2 billion tone is eliminated by ammonia. NP in drainage is also hated as pollution element and eliminated. Some other country like China, Indonesia, India and Vietnam do not eliminate NOx and NP in drainage. They use NOx and excreta as it is to produce plankton and fish. Then fish production and CO2 fixing of these countries increased remarkably. To eliminate NOx and NP by other precious fertilizer is tremendous loss. The countries who do such unreasonable elimination are suffering great damage on electricity price, economy, productive industry, agriculture, fish industry and DGP (GDP). NOx is promoting plankton CO2 assimilation, fixing of CO2 and promoting production of fish and grain and contributing for the protection of global warming.
- Special Session
Location: Tatsuta
Session Introduction
Vladimir Babeshko
Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia
Title: Block element method and its application in seismology
Biography:
Vladimir Babeshko has completed his PhD (Doctor of Mechanics) from Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia. He is a Chief of Scientific-Research Center for Forecasting and Preventing Geoecological and Technologenic Disasters, Kuban State University and Southern Research Center, Russian Academy of Sciences. He has 20 patents, published 7 monographs and more than 450 papers in reputed journals to his credit.
Abstract:
A new mathematical method based on high-level mathematics called the block element method was developed. The method is applicable to boundary value problems for partial differential equations and their systems. The method includes a number of other mathematical approaches and has numerous applications in various fields. Thanks to this method, it was possible to investigate and solve a number of problems that could not be solved by other methods. The method, despite numerous applications, is in the development stage and penetrates into an increasing number of scientific problems. The advantage of the method is the representation of solutions of boundary problems in analytical form, in the form of integrals, which makes it possible to identify those properties of solutions that are not visible when applying traditional numerical methods. The applications of this method in seismology are given for the different examples of the lithospheric plates. Comparisons of the theoretical results with the consequence of real earthquakes are given.
- Climate Change and Climatology | Climate Change and Global Warming Evidences | Pollution and Climate Change | Climate and Energy Policy | Carbon Farming | Natural Hazards and Disaster Management
Location: Tatsuta
Chair
Arup Kumar Sarma
Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, India
Session Introduction
Mukhtar Yusubovich Bekkiev
High-Mountain Geophysical Institute, Russia
Title: Degradation of glaciation of the slopes of Mount Elbrus due to climate change
Time : 14:00-14:30
Biography:
Mukhtar Yusubovich Bekkiev has worked for a long time at universities and was the Head of the Faculty of Environmental Engineering. He is an expert on the safety of structures. For several years he has been the Director of a High-Mountain Geophysical Institute, Russia. His area of scientific interests is in geography, mechanics, safety of natural objects and structures under various force impacts.
Abstract:
The major node of the glaciation of the Caucasus Mountains - Elbrus (5642 m) in Russia continues to be explored in terms of global climate change. According to the results of such works, the dynamics of the change in the Elbrus glaciers at the end of the 20th and the beginning of the 21st centuries is given. The Figure-1 shows how glaciers have degraded over the period 1957-2015. The data are obtained as a result of comparison of aerial photographs since 1957 and space images of Canopus-B1, Pleiades, GeoEye of different years. The process of degradation of Elbrus glaciation proceeds unevenly in time and space. In the 20th century, periods of retreat and increase of glaciers have been replaced several times. The glaciers of the northeastern foothills of Elbrus considerably decreased in size. The total decrease in the area of glaciers during this time was almost 15%, the position of the snow line on the glaciers changed drastically. When the Elbrus glaciers recede, the directions of the glacial water flow change and new glacial lakes form, the relief changes and the more frequent dangerous hydro meteorological phenomena become more pronounced. Based on the data of weather stations, data are given on the temperature change and some other climatic parameters.
Suree Chooprateep
Chiang Mai University, Thailand
Title: Patterns of daily average US temperatures over the period 1975-2016
Time : 14:30-15:00
Biography:
Suree Chooprateep has her expertise in Applied Statistics. She has experience in research and teaching applied statistics, time series analysis, statistical methods and statistical analysis of data at the Department of Statistics, Chiang Mai University, Thailand. Her most recent research involves modeling of temperatures, such as temperatures in Southeast Asia, sea surface temperatures of the North Atlantic Ocean and solar absorption by clouds in Australia. She continues to do research related to modeling of temperatures in the United States and rainfall patterns in Thailand.
Abstract:
In this study, various statistical methods were used to analyze models of climatic variations of air surface temperatures in daily average temperatures in the USA from 1975 to 2016. Average daily temperature data was obtained from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The temperatures collected from 115 stations in USA, over a period of 42 years were analyzed to account the temperature variability. Temperature data recorded on the leap years were omitted in order to maintain equal observations for each year. To reduce the serial correlation between daily temperatures for each station, the 5-day average temperature was compute and used in this study. For each station, the first model was fit for year and 5-day average temperatures and the fitted models were displayed as the seasonal patterns. Next, factor analysis was applied to account for spatial correlations and also to consolidate all stations into five regions, specifically West, North East, East, South and South West regions. The classification from factor analysis can be explained 66.6% of the total variance. For each region, the second model was fit for year and month variables and this model contains the year and month effects only. For five regions, the average temperature in each month of year and annual temperature were estimated with 95% confidence interval. The temperature patterns for all regions can be showed in the same graph. For each month of year the estimated minimum temperatures in January were different among the regions. The temperature increased sharply from February to July, then decreased from August to December. For the annual trend, the highest temperature was in the south region and the lowest temperature was in the northeast region.
Pan Mengting
Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, China
Title: Evaluation and superensemble forecasting for decadal predictions of sea surface temperature
Time : 15:00-15:30
Biography:
Pan Mengting is a Doctoral candidate majored in Meteorology from Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, China. He has made some researches on the evaluation and improvement of decadal predictions based on CMIP5 models. In recent years, he has participated in many projects focusing on ensemble forecast.
Abstract:
Using decadal prediction experiments from BCC-CSM1.1, GFDL-CM2.1, MPI-ESM-LR, FOAM-EAKF and FOAM-NUDGING initialized every year from 1960-2004, we evaluate the prediction skill of sea surface temperature over the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The evaluation results show that the prediction skill in the Atlantic is substantially higher than in the pacific. The poor skill in the North Pacific is caused mainly by the failure to predict the warm events in the 1960s and the climate shift in the mid 1975s at the leads of 2-5 years and 6-9 years. In terms of Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC), the Coupled Global Climate Models (CGCMs) has a better prediction skill than the persistence in the North Pacific for forecast leads greater than 6 year, albeit not significant at the 10% level. In the Atlantic, the Multi-Model Ensemble mean (MME) of Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV) resembles closely the observation and shows a climate shift from the cold to warm years around 1990. The multi-model Superensemble (SUP) forecast is compared with the MME and individual models for the average of forecast leads 2-5 year. It is found that the prediction skill of SUP is significantly higher than the best single model but only slightly higher than the MME for the 30-year running period during the forecast period 1990-2004.
Fatemeh Askarinejad
University of Tehran, Iran
Title: Study on natural leaf packaging: Developing date packaging design with palm leaf
Time : 15:30-16:00
Biography:
Fatemeh Askarinejad is pursuing her Master’s course in Industrial Design from Tehran University. Her enthusiasm mainly shaped in ethnographical research, design for user behavior and sustainability to explore the exact need of people and providing them a better life.
Abstract:
Nature has a lot of hidden potentials, especially in the direction of packaging for perishables and goods. Natural material for packaging is a topic that has been around since the dawn of civilizations, especially in the Iranian tradition. The advantages of using natural leaf packaging are the antibacterial effect of that on foods and keeping them fresh. As Iran has a great date harvest from palm trees, providing suitable packaging for dates has a positive effect on encouraging people to use this product daily. Packaging for dates has different design in the market. But there is no serious usage and design with natural material and for dates with palm leaf. The surveys got done through local observation and ethnographical research. Locals in south of Iran weave baskets with palm leaves to keep dates for their annual usage, these baskets have simple design, through interviews we realized that local people believe this kind of baskets keep dates fresh comparing to plastic or paper-based materials. In this research we have a closer look to advantages of using traditional ways of wrapping dates with palm leaf and in general using natural leaf for food packaging. Advantages of that are positive impression of natural material on consumer food preferences, job opportunities for local people, keeping traditional designs updated and introducing sustainable packaging to the market and users more and more. The methodology used in this study is based on ethnographical research and analysis. The main goal of this project is to introduce the potential of using natural material as packaging.
Ojetunde A Ojewola
University of Missouri, USA
Title: A qualitative approach to climate change resilience: Park manager’s perceptions in the Midwestern United States
Time : 16:15-16:45
Biography:
Ojetunde A Ojewola is currently pursuing Doctoral degree at the University of Missouri majoring in Human Dimensions of Natural Resources. His research interest is in understanding how social and natural sciences can be integrated to improve resource management. Presently, he is working with a team of researchers who are studying vulnerability and resilience of Missouri State Parks to climate change.
Abstract:
Climate change associated with parks and protected areas can affect visitor experiences, management priorities and legislative requests for disaster relief funds. Impacts are unequal in geographic distribution and so are the perceptions of those who live in different regions of the country. People have a tendency to be climate change deniers in areas where this phenomenon is less obvious, which could affect how they respond to its mitigation and adaptation. Some factors that often influences one’s perception of climate change include personal experience with climate related environmental impacts and observable changes in the environment such as biodiversity loss, habitat degradation and more invasive species. Using a deductive approach focused on community resilience framework, qualitative interviews were conducted with eleven district managers to examine their perceptions of climate change impacts in Missouri State Parks and historic sites. An implication of this study focuses on vulnerability, resilience and adaptation strategies. This research is part of a larger effort to understand climate change in the Midwestern US, an area plagued by drought and flooding, prolonged heat waves, reduced air quality and new disease ecologies. Although the social construction of climate change by every park managers differs especially based on its causation and occurrence, every manager agrees that climate impacts are evident over time. Flooding is the most reoccurring identified stressor. Each of the stressor is often characterized by one or more dimensions, severity, frequency, predictability, duration and distribution. To build a more resilient system, identifying pre-existing vulnerabilities to reduce risk, strengthening adaptive capacities through monitoring, partnering with relevant agencies, team work in the system and including place based climate change communication are paramount. This study provides helpful insights to understand perceptions of resilience in park settings which are important determinants of environmental decision making behavior, policy formation and communication with relevant stakeholders such as park visitors.
Ly Baila
PROTOMAC, Gabon
Title: What is the outcome for marine turtle conservation face to climate change? Could the danger be avoided?
Time : 16:45-17:15
Biography:
Ly Baila is currently a researcher in PROTOMAC, Gabon.
Abstract:
Climate change has become the cross-cutting issue, the challenge to conservation activities. This research has been done for several years on the conservation of marine ecosystems, especially with sea turtles as an emblematic species. Today the activities of conservation on the beaches are hindered by the disappearance of certain beaches. This research has shown the results of monitoring activities of nesting sea turtles over 10 years from 2000 to 2010. Comparison of work done from 2011 to 2016 affected by the disappearance of beaches due to the rise of the oceans has been done. In this research the results difficulties and solutions are discussed.